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Cringely Predicts IBM ‘Disappears Into Red Hat’

Cringely Predicts IBM ‘Disappears Into Red Hat’

Tech pundit Robert X. Cringely has been sharing know-how predictions each January for over twenty years — and he made one other huge one on Friday:
IBM has three divisions — Global Technology Services (GTS), Global Business Services (GBS), and Red Hat. GTS is the legacy IT enterprise, GBS is the skilled providers enterprise invented by Lou Gerstner to save lots of IBM the final time it was in big bother, and Red Hat is Linux. GTS — that a part of IBM most of us nonetheless consider as IBM — will in all probability be bought by summer season. Either it should go to non-public fairness (is dependent upon the whole debt load) or will probably be bought to HPE or perhaps to Oracle. Either method, it is not a possible success story, however [current CEO Ginni] Rometty has no actual alternative. IBM is, at this level, smoke, mirrors, and buybacks. The GTS windfall will land in Ginni’s closing quarter, juicing her payout, which is likely to be the key level of the deal…

IBM’s new CEO is Arvind Krishna, previously head of the Cognitive Computing unit — IBM’s cloud man. Except Cognitive Computing was by no means actually cloud. Cognitive has been a mishmash of cloud, supported by income streams which might be something however cloud. It’s cloud in identify solely and would be the half that goes subsequent summer season, probably with Mr. Krishna nonetheless at its head.

The subsequent chairman of IBM after Rometty will likely be present Red Hat CEO Jim Whitehurst. If Whitehurst is as good as I feel he’s, he began yesterday on the lookout for a brand new job. It’s not that he actually intends to go away, however as the subsequent savior of IBM, Ginni et al can pay something to maintain him. Cut your new deal now, Jim, whereas demand is biggest….Whitehurst will flip IBM into Red Hat, which is able to take HQ to North Carolina and imply many of the remaining GBS workers will likely be gone in a yr…

It nonetheless will not save IBM. They’ll go down within the coming yr or two together with the remainder of the business we used to name IT…

Let’s simply say that IBM’s loss is AWS’s achieve.

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