Messari Daily Newsletter: Hedging Covid-19
Quick updates on what the well being neighborhood is now calling “COVID-19″, the illness that arises from problems from Wuhan’s coronavirus infections.
On the unfold entrance, I’m paying the closest consideration to the data former FDA commissioner, Scott Gottlieb curates and shares. His newest tweet is just not nice: “Deeply regarding: Singapore has three new instances of #COVID-19, bringing to 50 the nation’s whole case rely. eight are in intensive care. Singapore, with a wonderful public well being system, goes to offer way more data on viral epidemiology than China.” There’s additionally an excellent detailed graphic on Singapore’s case development, which can be the perfect proxy for what may occur if there’s an outbreak within the west. Unfortunately, this additionally implies that the tip of chilly and flu season (hotter climate) probably gained’t matter a lot.
The Diamond Princess cruise ship new retains getting worse, as 40 new instances have been confirmed. “39 new optimistic instances got here from 53 further examined. That’s ~three/4th of these examined [so the number may be much higher]! Moreover, a Japanese Ministry of Health quarantine officer was amongst these identified… that he had not been sporting a full hazmat swimsuit“. A full 5% of the ship is now confirmed contaminated. I hate to say it, however this is likely to be the perfect management group we’ve got to grasp R0, incubation interval, essential case charges, and mortality charges.
A few new “pre-print” research additionally got here out (aka not but peer reviewed), the primary research is the most important thus far from the China CDC and opinions the primary 4021 confirmed instances w/ COVID-19 from 30 provinces. They discover an R0 of ~three.77 (95% CI three.51–four.05) – keep in mind that implies that each affected person contaminated infects three.77 others – with a case fatality charge of ~three%, with males about 4x as prone (male four.45%, feminine 1.25%). The unhealthy information: an R0 of three.77 is batshit loopy / borderline unstoppably excessive. The excellent news (for in any other case wholesome individuals): that is virtually definitely a excessive water mark for mortality (probably considerably understates delicate instances), and may very well be a transparent indication that people who smoke are way more prone than non-smokers (as there are main variations in smoking charges by gender in China). A second pre-print research can also be alarming. A assessment of 1324 Chinese COVID-19 sufferers present incubation occasions as much as 24 days (!!!), with solely 43.eight% of latest sufferers having fevers. This shall be exhausting to comprise.
Maybe essentially the most alarming piece although comes from the BBC yesterday: “Xi Jinping warned senior CCP officials that the measures taken to contain the new coronavirus were well beyond reasonable limits and had threatened the Chinese economy. There is growing concern that China’s economy, which has slowed during the Sino-U.S. Trade war, could be further dragged down.”
Xi warned CCP officers to not over-react to the Covid-19 epidemic to keep away from hurting the financial system. The streets in Shanghai and Beijing are (anecdotally) ghost cities, and plenty of are nonetheless not going again to work though they have been given the inexperienced mild to take action. The largest concern could also be whether or not China is feeling the financial pinch to chop corners on containment prematurely?
I don’t suppose the dangers listed below are priced into the market proper now, because the S&P simply hit new all time highs AGAIN.
THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE, CONSULT WITH YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR.
But I’m personally hedging my crypto publicity (in case bitcoin reacts as a “risk off” funding), and shopping for SPY places and gold.
The reality we’re in any respect time highs out there proper now could be fully and completely insane to me.
P.S. Reminder to trace my real-time updates right here and checklist of prime twitter follows right here re COVID-19